Low handgrip strength is associated with worse functional outcomes in long-Covid (preprint)

The diagnosis of long-Covid is troublesome, even when functional limitations are present. Dynapenia is a decrease in muscle strength and power production and may explain in part these limitations. This study aimed to identify the distribution and possible association of dynapenia with functional assessment in patients with long-Covid. A total of 113 inpatients with COVID-19 were evaluated by functional assessment 120 days post-acute severe disease. Body composition, respiratory muscle strength, spirometry, six-minute walk test (6MWT) and hand-grip strength (HGS) were assessed. Dynapenia was defined as HGS < 30kg/f (men), and < 20kg/f (women). Twenty-five (22%) participants were dynapenic, presenting lower muscle mass (p < 0.001), worse forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) (p = 0.0001), lower forced vital capacity (p < 0.001), and inspiratory (p = 0.007) and expiratory (p = 0.002) peek pressures, as well as worse 6MWT performance (p < 0.001). Dynapenia was associated with worse FEV1, MEP, and 6MWT, independent of age (p < 0.001). Patients with dynapenia had higher ICU admission rates (p = 0.01) and need for invasive mechanical ventilation (p = 0.007) during hospitalization. The HGS is a simple, reliable, and low-cost measurement that can be performed in outpatient clinics in low- and middle-income countries. Thus, HGS may be used as a proxy indicator of functional impairment in this population.

Risk factors for long COVID among healthcare workers, Brazil, 2020 (preprint)

Objectives: We aimed to determine risk factors for the development of long coronavirus disease (COVID) in healthcare workers (HCWs). Methods: We conducted a case-control study among HCWs who had confirmed COVID-19 infection working in a Brazilian healthcare system between March 1, 2020 and July 15, 2022. Cases were defined as those having long COVID per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition. Controls were defined as HCWs who had documented COVID-19 infection but did not develop long COVID. Multiple logistic regression was used to assess the association between exposure variables and long COVID during 180 days of follow-up. Results: Of 7,051 HCWs diagnosed with COVID-19 infection, 1,933 (27.4%) who developed long COVID were compared to 5,118 (72.6%) who did not. The majority of those with long COVID (51.8%) had 3 or more symptoms. Factors associated with development of long COVID were female sex (OR 1.21 [CI95 1.05-1.39]), age (OR 1.01 [CI95 1.00-1.02]), and two or more COVID-19 infections (1.27 [CI95 1.07-1.50]). Those infected with the Delta variant (OR 0.30 [CI95 0.17-0.50]) or the Omicron variant (OR 0.49 [CI95 0.30-0.78]), and those receiving four COVID-19 vaccine doses prior to infection (OR 0.05 [CI95 0.01-0.19]) were significantly less likely to develop long COVID. Conclusions: Long COVID can be prevalent among HCWs. We found that acquiring more than one COVID-19 infection was a major risk factor for long COVID, while maintenance of immunity via vaccination was highly protective.

COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Amazonas was driven by long-term persistence of endemic SARS-CoV-2 lineages and the recent emergence of the new Variant of Concern P.1 (preprint)

The Northern Brazilian state of Amazonas is one of the most heavily affected country regions by the COVID-19 epidemic and experienced two exponential growing waves in early and late 2020. Through a genomic epidemiology study based on 250 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from different Amazonas municipalities sampled between March 2020 and January 2021 we revealed that the first exponential growth phase was driven mostly by the dissemination of lineage B.1.195 which was gradually replaced by lineage B.1.1.28. The second wave coincides with the emergence of the variant of concern (VOC) P.1 which evolved from a local B.1.1.28 clade in late November and rapidly replaced the parental lineage in less than two months. Our findings support that successive lineage replacements in Amazonas were driven by a complex combination of variable levels of social distancing measures and the emergence of a more transmissible VOC P.1 virus. These data provide unique insights to understanding the mechanisms that underlie the COVID-19 epidemic waves and the risk of disseminating SARS-CoV-2 VOC P.1 in Brazil and potentially worldwide.

INFERRED RESOLUTION THROUGH HERD IMMMUNITY OF FIRST COVID-19 WAVE IN MANAUS, BRAZILIAN AMAZON (preprint)

As in many other settings, peak excess mortality preceded the officially reported `first wave' peak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Manaus, Brazil, reflecting delayed case recognition and limited initial access to diagnostic testing. To avoid early information bias, we used detailed age and gender stratified death certificate and hospitalisation data to evaluate the epidemic's trajectory and infer the cause of its decline using a stochastic model. Our results are consistent with heterogenous transmission reducing over time due to the development of herd immunity. Relative to a baseline model that assumed homogenous mixing across Manaus, a model that permitted a small, self-isolated population fraction raised the estimated herd-immunity threshold from 28% to 30% and reduced the final attack rate from 86% to 65%. In the latter scenario, a substantial proportion of vulnerable, older individuals remained susceptible to infection. Given uncertainties regarding the distancing behaviours of population subgroups with different social and economic characteristics, and the duration of sterilising or transmission-modifying immunity in exposed individuals, we conclude that the potential for epidemic outbreaks remains, but that future waves of infection are likely to be much less pronounced than that already experienced.